Newsom tightrope act on billionaire tax falling flat with Democratic voters, union members, and teachers

SACRAMENTO, CA — Governor Gavin Newsom’s attempt to position himself against California’s proposed billionaire wealth tax while maintaining support among Democratic voters, union members and teachers is falling flat, according to new statewide polling.

The survey of 1,553 likely 2026 California voters found that the billionaire tax holds a strong double-digit, 19-point lead statewide, with voters supporting it by a 57% to 38% margin. The proposal would impose a one-time tax of up to 5% on people with assets valued at more than $1 billion, excluding real estate, to fund health care, food assistance and education-related programs.

Support rises dramatically among constituencies that form the backbone of the Democratic Party:

• 80% of Democrats support the billionaire tax.
• 70% of union members support it.
• 63% of teachers support it.
• 63% of health care workers support it.
• 56% of independent and no-party-preference voters support it.

The strong majority support among teachers comes despite a small group of leaders from one teachers union opting to oppose the tax, underscoring the gap between the position taken by those officials and the views of educators themselves.

The findings show that support for the billionaire tax is not narrow or marginal. It leads statewide by 19 points, while commanding even stronger support among Democrats, union members, teachers and health care workers.

The results also suggest that Newsom’s opposition to the measure is increasingly at odds with Democratic voters, organized labor, teachers and the Californians most directly affected by federal cuts to health care, food assistance and public education.

“Governor Newsom is trying to walk an impossible political tightrope — siding with billionaires against a popular tax while asking Democratic voters, union members and teachers to believe he shares their priorities,” said Tracy McCreery, a Licensed Vocational Nurse in Sacramento and an Executive Board member of SEIU-United Healthcare Workers West. “The polling makes clear that voters see what is happening, and they do not like it. Democratic voters want billionaires to help protect health care and essential services, not another politician working behind the scenes to shield them.”

Voters question the motives of Democratic opponents

The poll also found widespread skepticism toward Democratic candidates who oppose the billionaire tax.

When voters were asked why a Democratic candidate might oppose the proposal, 61% said it would more likely mean that the candidate was protecting major campaign donors or feared being targeted by billionaire-funded super PACs. Just 39% said opposition would more likely reflect a sincere belief that the measure was poorly written or harmful to California’s economy.

That concern was even stronger among union members. Among union households, 71% said Democratic opposition was more likely driven by a desire to protect wealthy donors or avoid billionaire-funded political attacks.

The figure reached:

• 71% among teachers
• 74% among health care workers

“This is not merely a disagreement over tax policy,” said Suzanne Jimenez, Chief of Staff at SEIU-United Healthcare Workers West. “Voters believe politicians who oppose the billionaire tax may be answering to billionaire donors rather than working families. That perception creates a serious credibility problem for any Democrat who chooses the billionaire class over patients, workers and public schools.”

Opposition could follow Newsom into a presidential primary

Newsom’s position could also become a significant liability in a future Democratic presidential campaign.

Nearly two-thirds of California voters — 63% — said they would be more likely to support a 2028 Democratic presidential candidate who backs a wealth tax on billionaires. Only 8% said they would prefer a candidate who opposes one.

After voters heard that Newsom had met with several California billionaires who reportedly urged him to stop the tax, 59% of California Democratic primary voters said they would be less likely to support him for president.

The question noted that the billionaires included Sergey Brin, a Trump supporter and donor, and that Newsom had taken the same side of the issue as Peter Thiel, one of President Trump’s most prominent financial supporters.

“Governor Newsom may believe he can oppose the billionaire tax now and escape accountability later,” said Suzanne Jimenez. “But Democratic primary voters are paying attention. They overwhelmingly support taxing billionaires, and a majority say Newsom’s efforts to defeat the measure would make them less likely to support him for president.”

Californians want Newsom focused on protecting health care

The survey found an equally stark divide over what voters believe Newsom’s priority should be during his final year in office.

Seventy percent of voters said Newsom should prioritize working to ensure that massive federal funding cuts do not eliminate health care for millions of Californians, drive up premiums and force hospitals and clinics to close.

Only 30% said he should prioritize campaigning and working behind the scenes to defeat the billionaire tax because of concerns that it would hurt the economy by driving billionaires to leave the state.

“The governor should be using his final months in office to protect Californians from devastating federal cuts — not protecting billionaires from a one-time tax,” said McCreery. “Voters understand the choice. They want their leaders focused on keeping hospitals open, protecting health coverage and preventing premiums from skyrocketing.”

The proposed billionaire tax would require approximately 200 California billionaires to make a one-time contribution based on their extraordinary wealth. The revenue would be dedicated to addressing cuts affecting health care, food assistance and education while protecting patients, workers and families from the consequences of the federal funding crisis.

Methodology

New River Strategies conducted the survey of 1,553 likely 2026 California voters, including 556 self-reported union-member households, through SMS text-to-web and online panels. The margin of error at the 95% confidence level is plus or minus 2.5 percentage points overall.