Are Billionaires Really Leaving California Because of Prop 40?

VOTE YES ON PROP 40

Vote Yes on Prop 40. Judge departure claims by what they actually show, and judge the funding opportunity by the evidence—not by the size of a scary headline.

The facts at a glance

A reported move is not itself a verified tax-residency determination. [1]

January 1, 2026 establishes the tax-obligation date; December 31, 2026 establishes the valuation date. [4]

The Hoover figure is a modeled net-present-value estimate. [5]

FOCUSED CLAIM REVIEW

What the evidence establishes

Claim reviewed: Proposition 40 will cost California about $25 billion in lost revenue.

Needs Context

The cited opposition estimate is a modeled negative net present value, not an annual loss or an observed budget loss. The Legislative Analyst’s Office report provides a different fiscal estimate. [2] [5]

This determination addresses how the estimate is presented. It does not declare every assumption in the Hoover model false.

Where the claim appeared: The argument against Prop 40 in the official voter guide presents a $25 billion loss claim. The underlying Hoover analysis describes a modeled net-present-value result. The Secretary of State hosts the argument but does not endorse or fact-check its assertions. [7]

Review publisher: Yes on 40 campaign. Determination submitted for campaign/legal approval; not an official or independent fact-check.

What about Sergey Brin, Larry Page, and Peter Thiel?

The Boll–Saez–Zucman paper examines named departure reports rather than counting every headline as a completed tax-residency change. It distinguishes Brin’s continuing California connections from Page’s reported move and treats several other possible departures individually. Those are the authors’ assessments of public information—not determinations of anyone’s confidential tax status. [3]

We are not claiming that no billionaire has left California. We are rejecting the shortcut from a list of names to a proven tax loss. A reliable claim needs a date, evidence of the relevant residence change, and a defensible estimate of the fiscal effect.

A move after January 1 does not automatically erase the proposed tax

The measure’s tax-obligation date is January 1, 2026. Covered wealth is generally valued on December 31, 2026. That means an announcement made later in the year is not, on its own, evidence that the person escaped the proposed tax. The statute also contains apportionment and other rules that can matter in individual cases. [4]

For the same reason, a dollar figure describing someone’s total wealth is not a dollar figure describing California tax revenue. A person worth billions does not pay the state that whole amount each year. A claim about lost tax receipts needs a tax calculation, not just a net-worth total.

The $25 billion claim is a forecast—not a loss already measured

An opposition fiscal analysis published by Hoover estimates a negative net present value of about $24.7 billion. Net present value converts projected future gains and losses into one present-day amount. It is not an annual loss and not a report of tax money already missing from California’s budget. [5]

The official LAO analysis presents a different picture: tens of billions in temporary wealth-tax receipts, together with a possible ongoing income-tax reduction of less than $1 billion a year. The different estimates rely on different approaches. Presenting the opposition model as an established loss leaves out that distinction. [2]

The decision is about funding care—not endorsing a headline

Prop 40 earmarks its proceeds, after administration, for healthcare, education, and food assistance. Its healthcare provisions include preventing closures and service reductions. The reason to vote Yes is to use that funding tool while reporting estimates and uncertainties honestly. [4]

Claims that wealth has “left” should not substitute for evidence about what tax California can collect. Follow the dates, the residence rules, and the actual fiscal models. That is a much stronger basis for a vote than a list of famous names.

A few more answers

The people and institutions behind the evidence

Keep reading

CHECK THE EVIDENCE

Sources behind this page

Each reference identifies what it establishes. A cited agency or researcher is not automatically a campaign endorser.

Vote Yes on Prop 40.

Vote Yes on Prop 40. Do not let an unproven claim about departures stand in for a serious plan to protect care.

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