California’s own independent analysis finds Prop 40 would generate tens of billions of dollars for hospitals and clinics

LOS ANGELES — A new campaign ad released today by a handful of morally bankrupt billionaires pushes a series of already debunked lies intended to scare voters into voting with billionaires in November. 

FACT: California’s OWN analysis shows Prop 40 generates massive income tax revenue gains for hospitals and schools

The new ad from billionaire tech bro Sergey Brin claims that asking billionaires to finally pay their fair share will somehow inexplicably result in lost income tax revenue for California’s hospitals and schools. This of course is a lie. 

According to California’s own Legislative Analyst’s Office, revenues generated from Prop 40 would probably “add up to tens of billions of dollars spread over several years,” while estimating a possible ongoing decrease “of less than $1 billion per year.”

In other words, Prop 40 opponents are lying. The Billionaire Tax will generate tens of billions of dollars in state income tax revenue for California’s hospitals, clinics and schools – the very hospitals, clinics, and schools now at risk of closure and cutbacks due to federal tax breaks for billionaires. 

FACT: Billionaire-backed Hoover Institution “study” riddled with errors

The new ad relies on an already debunked study from the Hoover Institute, one that billionaires themselves funded. The ad’s claim that Prop 40 would “forc[e] deep cuts to hospitals, schools, and first responders” hinges on the study’s finding that the measure would cost the state $25 in revenue. Again, this is false. 

The “study” in question was conducted by Joshua Rauh of the billionaire-backed Hoover Institution; it estimates large ongoing revenue losses from billionaires leaving the state. The “study,” however, makes a critical mistake: it calculates billionaires’ response to a PERMANENT, ANNUALLY RECURRING wealth tax, but the billionaire tax is a ONE-TIME tax, and there is no incentive to move after the now-passed January 1, 2026 deadline for residency. 

Renowned tax law experts have already debunked Rauh’s misguided conclusions, noting that they could only be reached “through a series of improbable assumptions and misunderstandings large and small.”

The study was produced earlier this year by the ideologically driven, right-wing think tank, the Hoover Institution in an apparent effort to scare the voting public into opposing Prop 40. 

The reappearance of the debunked study is part of an ongoing trend that sees pro-billionaire talking points, misleading numbers, and other misinformation being repeated despite a wealth of evidence to the contrary. The trend will likely only continue as the November General Election draws closer and billionaire opponents of the measure become increasingly desperate in the face of Prop 40’s rapidly growing popularity. 

Fact: Democrats and labor are united behind Prop 40. 

80% of Democrats support the billionaire tax and 70% of union members support it.

And according to statewide polling, Newsom’s opposition to the measure is increasingly at odds with Democratic voters, organized labor, teachers and the Californians most directly affected by federal cuts to health care, food assistance and public education.

This month alone, the California State Democratic Party, the California Nurses Association, and the state’s largest labor group, the California Federation of Labor Unions, AFL-CIO, all voted to endorse the Billionaire Tax, showing that Democrats and working families are united behind Prop 40. 

The number of major supporters of the Billionaire Tax has far outpaced the number of groups opposing. Supporters include U.S. Senator Bernie Sanders, Representative Ro Khanna, Teamsters California, AFSCME California, SEIU-UHW, Committee of Interns and Residents / SEIU, UNITE HERE Local 11, UNITE HERE Local 30, AFT Local 1521, Disability Voices United, Our Revolution California, Oxfam America, Color of Change, and many more. 

Fact: Teachers and Planned Parenthood staff are voting YES on Prop 40

Voters consistently support the California Billionaire Tax by large, double-digit margins. A new poll of likely 2026 California voters found that the billionaire tax holds a strong double-digit, 19-point lead statewide, with voters supporting it by a 57% to 38% margin. 

Support rises dramatically among constituencies that form the backbone of the Democratic Party:

• 80% of Democrats support the billionaire tax.
• 70% of union members support it.
• 63% of teachers support it.
• 63% of healthcare workers support it.

The strong majority support among teachers and healthcare workers comes despite a small group of leaders from one teachers union and Planned Parenthood opting to oppose the tax, underscoring the gap between the position taken by those officials and the views of educators and Planned Parenthood’s healthcare workers themselves.

Fact: Prop 40 will prevent widespread hospital and clinic closures

The more than 400 hospitals statewide have already laid off more than 3,400 healthcare workers as of mid-March, with a second wave of layoffs expected as funding cuts tied to recent federal policy changes are phased in over the next several years. Statewide, projections show the cuts could result in the loss of up to 145,000 healthcare jobs, impacting hospitals, clinics, and home care providers alike.

Without revenue from the California Billionaire Tax, federal healthcare cuts are expected to put an estimated 83 California hospitals and clinics at risk of closure. Cuts and closures have already started, impacting communities from  Los Angeles to Oakland to Glenn County.  

In November, California voters will have a chance to make billionaires pay their fair share to help prevent that, through a commonsense ballot initiative that places a one-time 5% tax on the wealth of approximately 200 billionaires who reside in the Golden State. Ninety percent of that funding will go to offset Medi-Cal cuts in order to prevent ER and other service closures, and 10% will go toward funding food assistance and public education.

The funds from Prop 40 will go to life-saving medical care for seniors, veterans, and families. It will allow millions of Californians to keep their health insurance and not see their premiums skyrocket. It will also help prevent teacher layoffs in our public schools and keep children fed through food assistance. 

About Prop 40, the California Billionaire Tax Act

Trump’s “Big, Ugly Bill” slashed funding for healthcare in California to pay for more billionaire tax breaks. These cuts eliminate healthcare coverage for up to 3.4 million Californians and double health insurance premiums for millions more. Prop 40, the California Billionaire Tax Act, will make billionaires finally pay their fair share in taxes to keep local hospitals and ERs open and healthcare affordable for millions of Californians.

Vote YES on Prop 40 to save lives, tax billionaires.

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Paid for by Yes on 40 – Billionaire Tax Now – No on 41 & 42, Sponsored by Service Employees International Union – United Healthcare Workers West. Committee’s Top Funder Service Employees International Union – United Healthcare Workers West

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